The world’s biggest investment banks saw combined revenues sink by 15 per cent in the first half of this year, the most since the aftermath of the financial crisis, underlining the urgency of taking radical measures to boost returns to shareholders.
The second quarter saw more activity than the first, where there were simultaneous falls across stocks, bonds and commodities and a dearth of companies doing deals. But the rebound was not strong enough to avert a slump in total revenues from investment banking for the top 12 banks, according to figures from Coalition, a London-based group that combines public information with independent research and validation by a network of market participants.
The banks’ revenues from trading stocks and bonds, and advising companies on mergers and capital raising, came to $79bn in the first half, down from $93.3bn in 2015. That marked the steepest year-on-year fall since a 25 per cent drop between the first halves of 2009 and 2010. The peak was $140bn in the first half of 2009.
George Kuznetsov, head of research and analytics at Coalition, said the prospects for a better second half of 2016 looked good, as the third quarter had continued in a similar vein as the second. Even so, he said, no bank expected its own revenues to rise more than five or six per cent next year, as tougher rules on capital and risk taking continued to weigh heavily on the industry.
“Investment banks are realising there is no top-line relief, capital allocation from [parent companies] probably won’t change much, and regulations won’t change much. So improvement in returns becomes dependent on optimising the cost base or grabbing market share,” Mr Kuznetsov said.
Banks have tried to keep a lid on expenses by relocating support staff to cheaper locations and by tying pay — their biggest cost — more closely to income. At Goldman Sachs, for example, compensation and benefits dropped 13 per cent in the second quarter from the previous year, exactly in line with net revenues.
But analysts say management teams need to do much more to lift returns to shareholders. None of Coalition’s group of 12 banks — Bank of America, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman, HSBC, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, SocGen and UBS — is expected to produce a double-digit return on equity (ROE) this year or next, according to consensus forecasts.
A 10 per cent ROE has long been considered a rough-and-ready benchmark for a company making good use of shareholders’ money. But the average for the Coalition group this year is expected to be 5.4 per cent, ticking up only slightly to 6.6 per cent in 2017.
Some banks are clearly in firefighting mode: Deutsche Bank chief, John Cryan, who has axed thousands of jobs, cut risky assets and suspended dividends over the past year, is now weighing further options. At Credit Suisse, Chief Executive, Tidjane Thiam, is trying to pivot away from trading towards wealth management and Asia.
But other big banks, particularly in the US, appeared to be “plodding along” with ROEs not much better than Deutsche or Credit Suisse, said Professor Roy Smith of New York University Stern School of Business. Boosting returns needed “out-of-the-box thinking” and perhaps external pressure from activist shareholders, he said, to force deeper restructuring.
“Lots of stuff has to happen. These companies are essentially adrift at the moment.”
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