I will first begin with the Obama administration and its policy toward Liberia. The administration was faced with a weak economy left by the Bush government. When Obama took office in 2009, unemployment was about 7.2%. Despite the Democrats having control of both houses, the economy was down. Like in Clinton’s first term, the Democrats lost the House of Representatives in the mid-term election. Their defeat was propelled by the Tea Party, a neo republican conservative group founded three years ago. The Republican lawmakers had made as their goal to make Obama a one-term president.
The Obama administration policy for Liberia entails the protection of human rights, the persecution of Liberian war crime perpetrators and human rights abusers residing in the US, the provision of direct and indirect aids in corporation with other partners for development, and the imprisonment of Chuck Taylor, son of Charles Taylor, and the deportation of George Boley, former Liberian warlord.
Although the administration was quite aware of the corruption and other violations of the Sirleaf government, the Obama administration took no action on the Liberian problems, thanks to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Clinton, wife of former President Bill Clinton and an admirer of President Sirleaf, believes in women empowerment. Sirleaf was the first female president of a sovereign nation in Africa. Sirleaf has been a darling of the West. Just before the October 2011 Liberian presidential election, she and two other women, Leymah Gbowee and Tawakkul Karman, were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Some observers viewed that she did not deserve the award and that it was given to her to influence the election.
To Obama’s credit, he did express concern publically for the shooting and killing by the Sirleaf armed forces during the peaceful demonstration of CDC members in November, 2011. CDC, Congress for Democratic Change, an opposition party, was one of the parties ran against Sirleaf ruling Unity Party in that election. CDC complained of voting frauds and boycotted the second round of voting. The military killed at least one demonstrator, as reported.
The Obama administration may have expressed concern of this violation more strongly than indicated. A nation’s opposition to an event is often expressed in stronger term at the diplomatic level. In fact, a State Department document stated that even though Sirleaf “won” the 2011 election as the only party in the second round, “opposition and unrest surrounding the elections showed that security, political and social conditions remain fragile”.
The US has taken strong position against human right violations in Liberia in the past. For instance, in 1979 after the rice riot massacre in Liberia during the Tolbert regime, the Carter administration expressed strongly in private its disapproval of the military action of the regime. One year after, Tolbert was overthrown in a coupe.
Despite the above, the Obama administration did little for Liberia and for Africa in general.
The Election of 2012
After many months of primary campaigning for the nomination of the Republican Party for 2012 presidential candidate, the party selected Mitt Romney as their standard bearer. Having lost the nomination four years ago to John McClain, Mitt Romney was determined to win the nomination this time; and he was financially prepared for the presidential campaign: Romney is a wealthy business man. Upon graduation from Harvard with law and business degree, he worked for a consulting firm. He later managed and operated the Bain Capital, which bought and resold businesses for a huge profit. It is said that Bain outsourced jobs overseas and has business or investment in China. Romney was a bishop in the Mammon Church. He was also a former governor of Massachusetts. He selected Paul Ryan as his VP running mate. Ryan is a US Representative from Wisconsin.
The Democratic Party nominated Baraka Obama as their candidate for a second term. In the 2008 election, Obama made history by becoming the first African American to be elected US president. He generated enthusiasm and excitement and easily won the election. That excitement however appeared to have disappeared in this 2012 election. Obama slightly led in the polls before the Democratic Party Convention. The US economy under him makes no significant improvement. As stated previously, he inherited the failed economy of the Bush era with high unemployment and increased poverty rate. Under Bush, the GDP declined 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2008, registering the deepest economic activity downward in 26 years and plumbing the nation into a recession. Moreover, the US war in Iraq cost the country $3 trillion, according to Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz. This also increased the country’s deficits.
Under Obama, unemployment increased from 7.2% in 2008 to 7.8% in September 2012. But the rate has been declining slowly from 8.1% in August to 7.8% in September. The GDP has increased 2%, more than economists and analysts have expected. Private sector jobs have grown for 32 conservative months, while experiencing more job loss including decline in government employment. The just released October Jobs Report shows a strong performance of the economy. While unemployment slightly increased 0.1 % from 7.8% to 7.9%, the economy created 171,000 additional jobs more than expected. The increase in the unemployment rate was due to the upward adjustment of additional people who returned to the job market. There is significant job growth in the retail and service sectors. This report is good news for the administration.
Bill Clinton made a good case for Obama when he, at the Democratic National Convention, told fellow Democrats and the American public that considering the economic mess created by Bush and inherited by Obama, it would take more than four years to fix the problem. Therefore, Obama should be given four more years, pointing out that the plan which Obama has put in place is beginning to work as shown by the steady decrease of unemployment and the grown of private sector jobs. The explanation worked. Obama got a big bounce in the polls.
But in the first debate, Obama performed poorly. Romney appeared presidential. Romney won the debate and tightened the polls or by some media led slightly. His argument is that Obama promised the American people four years ago to create more jobs but has failed. Yet Romney would not tell specifically how he would create jobs, reduce deficits, help the middle class and increase revenues without raising taxes. Romney says he will give the detail after the election. Moreover, Romney has been flip flopping on his positions such as on abortion and on some areas of the economy. “People do not know where Romney stands as he has been changing positions”, some observers say.
Although Obama won the next two debates, the race is very tight. The race particularly in the battle ground states or in the rust belt is close. If Obama wins, he will become the first US president to win re-election with unemployment over 7.8% since Franklin D. Roosevelt. The economy decides presidential elections in the US. As the saying goes, “Americans vote with their pocket books”.
In this election the candidate who wins Ohio and additional two or three Midwestern states or swing states will win the race. Unlike the 2000 election in which Florida was king, this election’s king is Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. Turnout, enthusiasm to vote, ground work and women votes will be key factors. Minority votes are also very important. The Latino population has been growing about 64% and their votes could play an important role in the election.
One good element of this election is the early voting by some states. This will make it faster for the results to come in. The early voting is said to be in Obama’s favor, according to reports. Obama’s bailout of the auto industry helped employment in Ohio. In fact, the unemployment rate in Ohio is below the national average. The Republicans however have more enthusiasm than the Democrats as reported by some surveys. This enthusiasm, particularly among the evangelicals, enabled the party to win the 2004 election. Early voting usually benefits Democrats, while absentee ballots favor Republicans.
Few days after the last debate, the country experienced super storm Sandy, which some viewed as the “October Surprise”. The hurricane destroyed properties and caused the death of over 95 people in many states, especially New Jersey and New York. It was the most destructive storm for the area. Obama stopped campaigning for two days to see about the situation. He looked presidential. Americans saw him as a leader who cares. One of his critics, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, praised him for caring and for showing leadership. Obama also received endorsement from Michael Bloomberg, Mayor of New York. Whether these events will have an impact on the election is hard to tell now. Daily polls do not tell which candidate is really winning, as Election Day approaches. But events such as Sandy can impact a tight election.
Each campaign will put a spin on the polls. Strategists will express confidence that their candidate will win. They do not want to appear losing. Chuck Todd, NBC News Political Director, advised that to know how a campaign is doing is to look which states they are putting out from; and states which they are spending their advertising dollars in the last two or three weeks. If they put out from a state, he continued, that means they have given up that state. Marist Poll Director Lee Miringoff agreed, adding that where they put their money are states which they must win. Another yardstick is to look at the travel itineraries of the candidates for the last two weeks. If they go to a state three or more times, then they really need that state and must win it.
By 9 PM Tuesday the votes should be calling in. No Republican candidate has won the White House without winning Ohio in recent time. Todd stated that if Ohio is called by 9, the path to 270 will be easy for Obama. If Obama wins Ohio but Pennsylvania is too close to call, Romney will have hope and Obama will have a long night. Obama will be in the driver seat if he wins Florida or Virginia and not Ohio.
Can the election be a draw? Or can each candidate get 269 electoral votes? If so, what will happen? Considering the tightness of the race, it is possible for the electoral votes to split evenly. If this happens, the House of Representatives will select the president and the senate will choose the vice president. Each state will have one vote. If the vote in House is tied, then the speaker becomes president. If the vote in the Senate is also tied, the vice president breaks the tie and becomes VP. This means we could have Romney as president and Biden as vice president. This situation occurred in the 1824 election in which John Quincy Adams became president by the House of Representatives. Most Americans do not want Congress to decide the election, considering what happened in 2000 election. While Congress involvement will be constitutional, it would be viewed negatively and would discourage the electorates.
Can the election date be postponed temporarily to a later date, because of hurricane Sandy? Not really possible. Congress was enacted to set the presidential election date, which is the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. The month previously was March before changing to November. The Secretary of State of each state runs the elections in that state and may extend the time or hours of election but not to change the date. To change the date, because of the storm, would be unfair to the other states, where the hurricane did not occur. The election will go on regardless. It is hard to tell who will win. As stated earlier, the candidate who will have the greater turnout particularly in the swing states will have a better chance to win.
Although presidential elections in the US are not all perfect, after an election is over, the ballots have been counted and a winner has been declared, the losing candidate would congratulate the victor and pledge support for the good of the country. Democrats and Republicans will come together as one. National interest will override personal and party interest. This practice of democracy is one of the fine elements that make America great.
Peace and development can come about when there is fairness in the process and justice is for all. This statement and the above paragraph are very important for Liberia and for other third world countries. Although there are some useful information stated in this piece, putting country first brings development. Also the electoral process must be fair and justice must be exercised. Justice brings genuine peace. The justice system must be fair, not for special party or individuals, but for all, for the good of the nation. Americans put their country first. Liberian politicians need to put Liberia first.
Dagbayonoh Kiah Nyanfore ll, a US resident since 1966, is a Liberian national.