Polls are like blankets you can’t go without them during cold seasons. They give allergies when you throw them on and you may likely catch pneumonia or severe cold if you decide to go without them says author Gordon Offin-Amaniampong.
This appears to be the dilemma facing Ghanaian voters and political parties in this election season. No doubt it’s a season carefully shaped by the stakeholders of the game including those who claim they’ve the ears and the eyes of biblical prophets Samuel and Elijah. Already they know who’s winning, who’s won and who God has already chosen as the next president of Ghana.
In the meantime, the airwaves, cyber space or the Internet and the tabloids have all been saturated with wild polls, wild predictions and wild prophecies. Interestingly, they’re all happening with les than days to the December 7, general elections amid tension and rumors of rigging.
Lately, you may have observed that these polls and prophecies have been received with mixed feelings and misgivings. They’re considered bad, bias and unscientific if they don’t favour a particular party or an individual. On the other hand they’re described as accurate, scientific and good if the odds favour the individual or the party. In the nutshell, nobody likes to taste defeat everyone wants to be a winner.
So are Ghanaians getting allergic to these polls or are fed up with them?
Could be, it seems they’ve been stung by the bees giving them funny feelings. The symptoms are however, different from the usual sneezing, wheezing, itchy eyes and the nasal congestion which could be caused by food poisoning, weed smoking or taking say penicillin injection.
It appears they’ve had enough from the prophets, the pundits and the clerics and probably enough of the ‘Bitter Pill’ from Pollster Ben Ephson. But as I earlier indicated they can’t do without them. Mr. Ephson who is also the editor for ‘The Daily Dispatch newspaper has been doing this random exercise for some time now.
Nonetheless, his latest poll had been rubbished by the NDC parliamentary candidate for Weija-Gbawe; Obuobia Darko-Opoku. The candidate was unhappy and had vehemently refused to buy into the poll conducted by the pollster in her constituency, which suggested that she will lose the December election.
“I’m not a pollster, the basics I know about polls show that it have scientific data to back it. Where is Mr. Ephson’s statistics/data to buttress his claim? I do not doubt his credentials, but such comment can easily be made by any ordinary person on the street.”
She dared Mr. Ephson to conduct a ‘proper opinion poll’ in Weija-Gbawe constituency, adding ‘he’ll realise my popularity rating is far higher than even the incumbent MP Rosemond Abrah because I am on the candidate who has touched base with the people.”
I remain focused and not be swayed by anyone to distract my campaign with a few weeks to the election. The people of Weija-Gbawe are the best judge.”
Indeed nothing seems different. Everything pollsters, pundits and prophets are doing today had been done before (in the previous elections). Aside the 1992 general elections, the 2000, 2004, 2008 and the 2012 elections didn’t go down history as tension-free or without allegations of fraud, rigging and pockets of violence. We probably witnessed them all. But in the midst of all that Ghana has maintained its status as a peaceful nation.
Let me quickly point out that there was voter apathy in the 1992 parliamentary election. Many chose to stay home rather than exercise their franchise. This followed the opposition claim that the presidential election which was held separately on the 3rd of November was fraudulent and therefore boycotted it.
It was the first since the 1979 election (13 years on) and was held on the 29th of December. Voter turnout was merely 28 per cent. And the NDC won the most seats in parliament about 185 out of the 200 seats.
TV’3 anchor and news caster Mr. Abu Issa Monnie says: “Polls on elections nowadays are becoming like pundits opinion on a football game. Until the referee blows the final whistle we may only remain hopeful.”
That’s right. The burden rests on the match commissioner, he calls the shot.
And I must say voters are increasingly becoming wiser during every election season. The majority have learned to keep their cards close to their chests. It fits into the old maxim that says ‘once bitten twice shy’. This is typical in battleground areas and also parties’ strongholds, where intimidations and threats often rear their ugly heads.
Thing is why put your card on the table, if you aren’t sure who you’re dealing with or not sure that could invite trouble for you?
Fact is not many people, (particularly independent and swing voters) today fancy to disclose or tell who their preferred candidate is. One’s vote must remain secret all the time. However, politicians have painstakingly tried to bastardise that ‘sacred’ act.
I’m reminded of a story of an Island in the Fa East that planned to ban bikinis. The skimpy, sexy western dress was deemed indecent by the indigenes hence the need to ban it. Consequently, the people had to vote on whether to wear the western outfit or it must be banned totally. Poll after polls suggested the majority of the Islanders wanted the dress banned and had nothing to do with it.
But it turned out more than two third of the populace actually liked the dress but they never openly expressed their interest. In sort, they overwhelmingly voted for it instead of opposing.
This among other factors explains why most scientific polls are getting it all wrong today. Brexit was a typical example. We saw that in the just ended US presidential election where the majority of the polls gave Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton a double digit lead over her main contender Republican candidate Donald J Trump. But in the end Mr. Trump won the election.
And it seems France is following suit. Scientifically conducted polls randomly select the voters interviewed. Randomness is the factor that permits a few hundred people to speak for all the voters within a statistical margin of error. In other words, you are as likely as any other voter in the district to be asked to participate in the poll.
So this is my message to all the stakeholders in this big game, please always remember polls are mere projections. A few numbers of people are usually selected to speak for the general masses and they don’t represent the final outcome. Just a tip of the iceberg.