Abstract
This research article was conducted to access the performance of the Yilo-Krobo NPP parliamentary candidate’s chances in the December 07, elections. The method employed an extensive review of the previous elections since 1996 to 2012 using search engines.
The result revealed the Yilo-Krobo NPP performance has retrogressed back to 1996. In conclusion, the current parliamentary candidate Dzetse Francis Appertey will have to work extra hard to win the seat and he actually needs time. I also propose that even if he loses the election he should be maintained in 2020 to help transform the constituency.
Introduction:
In my first research I hypothesized that Yilo-Krobo constituency is part of the shaky seat for the National Democratic Congress (NDC). I categorized as likely winnable meaning it can be won by the New Patriotic Party’s candidate Appertey if he is able to appeal to the people.
The Yilo-Krobo constituency is also part of the three Krobo constituencies in the Dangme land. The political trend in the Krobo land is very interesting. The NDC has won all the previous elections in the area. One notable finding is that unlike the Dangme constituencies in the greater Accra region, the krobo constituencies appeal more to the NPP partly because it is located in the eastern region.
In this analysis, I am only focusing on the two major parties parliamentary candidates in the constituency. In looking at the voting pattern and the political behavior of the people in the previous elections, the NPP Appertey is coming in as a novice unlike the NDC Lawyer Amoatey who is in the race for the second time. Hence, Dzetse has a big task ahead to unseat Lawyer Amoatey as the previous election in 2012 as a new entrant he obtained 26,584 votes as against the NPP Christian Kofi Tettey 14,510 votes(Tab 5). The difference was 12,074 votes. For Appertey to win this election he has to do some magic here by closing the 12,074 votes gap in the 2012 elections before he can win this election. He has a big task than any other NPP parliamentary candidates in the Krobo constituencies. Well, he is doing his best but he must go beyond best if he wants to win this seat. Interestingly, unlike the Lower Manya constituency where the NPP has always managed the second position, the NPP even lost the second position in 1996( Tab 1) election to Priscilla Esther Mensa Nee of the Eagle.
To win an election in a stronghold of a particular party you must also look at the previous gaps and the gap that exists between the NDC and NPP is huge and not favorable to the NPP’s Appertey. Alternatively, for Appertey to win this election he has to poll more than 12,074 votes from the camp of the NDC to be able to win this seat as anything apart from this could be suicidal for him.
Discussion:
Interestingly, the Yilo -Krobo constituency is the only area where one candidate on the ticket of the NPP was able to contest for four consecutive times(Tab 2, Tab 3, Tab, 4, Tab 5)
Interestingly, during his reign the difference between the NPP and NDC has always fluctuated. For instance, in 2000 the difference was 4,696. 2004(7,080), 2008(4,687) and rather one would expect him to perform better in 2012 but rather it was worse as the gap rose up to 12,074.
So in every second term on the ticket of the NPP the gap widens in the constituency when one would expect the gap to close if the same person had contested for four times. However, in 2012, Lawyer Amoatey added additional 8,239 votes to what was available in 2008 whilst the NPP only managed 852 votes to what was available in 2008. So the NPP’s Dzetse has a big job to be done. If this same trend repeats in 2016 then Appertey cannot be a match to Lawyer Amoatey as he is likely to win with 34,823 votes and the NPP Dzetse to obtain 15,362 votes
Table of Parliamentary elections Held in Yilo-Krobo constituency since 1996
Tab 1. 1996
Daniel Tekpertey NDC 22,688 49.40%
Priscilla Esther Mensa Nee EAGLE 6,482 14.10%
Abayah Victor Kwabla NPP 5,894 2.80%
Tab 2. 2000
Daniel Tekpertey NDC 13,960 49.10%
Christian Kofi Tettey NPP 9,264 32.60%
Jonas Tetteh Numo NRP 3,425 12.00%
Dominic Tetteh Kofi CPP 1,112 3.90%
Hassan KwekuCarboo PNC 482 1.70%
Joseph KwekuAyerteye UGM 213 0.70%
Tab 3. 2004
Christian Kofi Tettey NPP 13605 37.4
Francis Opai Tetteh CPP 1728 4.7
Ms Esther Korboe EGLE 369 1
Raymond Tawiah NDC 20685 56.8
Tab 4. 2008
Raymond Tawiah NDC 18,345 52.53%
Christian Kofi Tettey NPP 13,658 39.11%
Francis OpaiTetteh CPP 2,598 7.44%
Terkpetey Fred Kwasi PNC 325 0.93%
Tab 5. 2012
Magnus Kofi Amoatey NDC 26,584 61.49%
Christian Kofi Tettey NPP 14,510 33.56%
Adamtey Ebenezer Jones Dendenden NDP 981 2.27%
Nenebi Daniel Gerald Tettey-akomey Ind 539 1.25%
Patrick Addo Newman PPP 444 1.03%
Asem Ebenezer Tetteh CPP 176 0.41%
Percentage Performance of NDC and NPP
Parliamentary Candidates 1996-2012 at Yilo-Krobo
Fig 1
NPP’S Christian Kofi Tettey Votes
Performance in Yilo-Krobo for the Four Terms
Percentage Performance of Christian Tettey Four Terms at Yilo Krobo Constituency
Parliamentary Trend between NDC and NPP in Yilo-Krobo Constituency
Findings of the Research
The research revealed that Yilo -Krobo Constituency has gone back to the days where the NPP was struggling to close the gap (Fig 1, Fig 4).
The current Yilo -Krobo Constituency NPP is almost the same as the state in 1996(Fig 4).
Though Christian Tettey saved the party from struggling in 2000(Fig 1, Fig 2), he didn’t perform quite well in the constituency in his four terms as parliamentary candidate for the NPP and fortunately left the party in a bad state just as it was in 1996(Fig 3, Fig 4)
Dzetse Appertey , the aspiring parliamentary candidate for the NPP has to do more work(Fig 5)to be able to win the seat either this year or he should be given sometime to help transform the fortune of the Party in the constituency.
The Yilo -Krobo constituency is the only one in the Dangme land my research revealed that they are struggling and needs total commitment and revolution from party members to help challenge the NDC in the near future.
Currently the NPP numbers are not encouraging and they have retrogressed back to 1996.
Recommendation
In recommendation, I suggest a woman should also be considered in the near future. This was manifested at Lower Manya when a woman obtained more votes than any other NPP candidates. This woman should be a home grown and knows the tradition and well educated to contest the seat.
The YiloKrobo NPP must work very hard after 2016 elections by engaging in social interventions projects even if they lose the election to help them in the future
One candidate should not be allowed to contest more than two times. The maximum the person should be considered is two as the fourth time Christian Tettey contested retrogressed the party when the party was supposed to move forward.