Prof Edward Akuffo
In a conversation with some friends on November 7, 2016, I argued that Donald Trump will win the presidency of the United States of America and that should not be surprising at all.
To the majority of people, Hilary’s win was largely written on the wall. Yet, the outcome of the elections is ONE BIG DECEPTION for these people. Keen observers, however, are not surprised.
Here are the reasons I assigned to my prediction which also shed light on what appears to be one big deception in the recent political history of the United States:
1. Trump’s rejection by key ‘movers and shakers’ within the Republican establishment is only ‘hypocritical facade’ just to save their own political careers, and protect their interests. Unbeknownst to Trump skeptics, there is calculated deception in what is going on with the denial of Donald Trump. It appears that the powerful in the Republican Party like ‘weak presidents’ who ‘talk tough’ but are malleable behind the scene. President George W. Bush, and to some extent President Reagan are excellent examples. The ‘Hawks’ in the Republican Party, to a large extent, got what they wanted with these former presidents, especially in projecting America’s military superiority around globe. Mr. Trump appears not to be different from President George W. Bush, however, Trump is more interested in the economy than projecting military superiority of the United States. In any case US military superiority is given. These factors partly explain why Mr. Trump had more votes in the primaries than any candidate in the history of the Republican Party. He has the base to succeed!
2. Trump’s economic plan is racially-neutral. It is not anti-Black American or anti-Hispanic, although his social policy on immigration appears to be racially-charged. When Trump talks about rebuilding the American economy for Americans, he is only following the dictates of the principle of state sovereignty and the obligation of the US government to protect the economic interest of its citizens. I think Americans care more about their material condition than moral or ethical arguments on immigration that appear to favour non-nationals. American voters are political realists. They make prudent decisions. They will choose Trump!
3. Recent polls in Western countries have been off the mark, in some cases, by wide margins. Those who trust poll results do so at their own peril. Recent polls are only reliable when their predictions come true.
4. The media has won and Hilary has lost! The media appear to skew their reporting in favor of Hilary. Trump’s positive story is not popularized. In other words, Hilary has won the ‘media war’ and Trump will win what matters, the votes. The media hasn’t helped Hilary.
5. On foreign and defense policy Trump’s knowledge is excellent given that he is not your usual politician. For example, the re-emergence of Russia in Eastern Europe (Ukraine) and Middle East (Syria) requires a balancing act from the United States and its Allies. Trump appears to understand this security challenge, as well as non-conventional threats such as international terrorism. That is a big plus for Trump that Hilary Clinton has to contend with at the polling stations. In the prevailing ‘new-world disorder’ an ‘outsider politician’ who understands the issues at stake is what America needs than a politician who would be path-dependent. America requires new-policy-thinking and new action. Trump has the urge over Hilary.
6. Using gender lens (I am not talking about biology and sex but rather the social construction of masculinity and femininity), Americans will chose ‘weak’ Trump than ‘strong’ Hilary. To be sure, in a turbulent world, prudent leadership is not usually found in those who are loved by the public. You need leaders who love to take tough decisions even when they appear to be mimicking the voice of a few powerful people behind the scenes. Trump is the choice!
Now let us turn to the verdict by American voters!
As the CNN’s exit polls suggest, American voters believe that Trump can solve the trio challenges of terrorism, immigration, and trade.
Trump has won the presidency! The Republican Party seems to have found its voice again after eight years in hibernation.
Let those who are shocked or scared by Trump Presidency rather worry about the behavior of other major powers and the intensification of non-conventional security threats around the world.
To be sure, Donald Trump’s presidency would mark the beginning of a ‘new world order’ that would be defined by United States global economic dominance. That is why President Trump cannot afford to act erratically if he is to succeed in reordering American domestic and foreign policy to achieve this important goal. On international security, selected-bilateralism and multilateralism especially through NATO would likely be the main foreign policy strategy of the Donald Trump’s Administration. It is more likely that his Administration will refrain from unilateralism and would sparely use pre-emptive attacks like President Bush. Let us be Trump Optimists!
What Ghana needs is smart leadership who can read and understand what is going in the most powerful country in the world and align Ghana’s foreign policy accordingly.
Edward Akuffo is an associate professor of international security and international relations at the University of the Fraser Valley in Abbotsford, British Columbia, Canada.
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