A number of factors are in Barcelona’s favour in the 2016/17 Champions League with UEFA putting them forward as the most likely team to lift the trophy.
The last-16 gets underway on Tuesday with the Catalans facing Ligue 1 champions Paris-Saint Germain but that tough tie isn’t expected to prevent them from reaching Cardiff for the June 3 final.
In fact, UEFA managed to predict Real Madrid as last year’s winners, Zinedine Zidane’s side going on to claim the title in Milan against Atletico Madrid.
Here are the key stats used to gauge the likely victor:
Group stage winners
Aside from Inter in 2010, each of the last 11 Champions League winners finished first in their group.
Beating Manchester City to top spot in the first half of the season, that puts Barcelona forward with Real Madrid, Sevilla, and PSG among those who qualified for the knockouts in second place.
Defensive balance
A tournament winning defence cannot be too good nor too bad, according to recent history.
Not since 2003 has the team who conceded the least goals in the group stage, Atletico and Juventus this year, gone on to win the Champions League.
In addition, no club that’s let in more than eight in their group has lifted the cup. That includes Borussia Dortmund, Benfica, Manchester City, and Real Madrid this time around.
Outsider
In its current format, the Champions League final hasn’t featured a club who’s only just reached the knockouts for the first time. Villarreal came close in 2006, losing to Arsenal in the semi-finals, but this stat would appear to rule out Leicester City.
Precedent
Chelsea’s 2012 triumph represents the only time in the last 19 seasons that a club has won their first European Cup. In fact, plenty of teams in the last-16 this year are chasing their maiden title; Arsenal, Atletico, Leicester, Bayer, City, Monaco, Napoli, PSG, and Sevilla.
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